SKU: 13571367119

Stock Market Crashes

Sale price$34.99 Regular price$38.88
Save 10%

Pay in installments of $9.72 with ShopPay, AfterPay and Klarna

Shipping Estimate
USA
  • USA
  • CAN

Ships within 48 hours · Estimated delivery Aug 16 - Aug 21

Promo Codes Available:

For Your Every Summer RSVP, with Code: SUMMER15

Description

Stock Market CrashesThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble like markets and exit strategies from these

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.

We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.

The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

Shipping Notes
  • Free Standard Shipping on $100+ Orders to the USA.
  • Except Preorder products are shipped in 48 hours.
  • Delivery to the USA:
  1. Standard Shipping : 3-10 business days
  • If time is of the essence, please consider selecting expedited delivery for faster service.
Exchange/Return Notes
  • We offer a 30-day return/exchange service after receiving.
  • Final sale items are not eligible for returns or exchanges.
  • To process your return/exchange, please contact us at [email protected]
  • Please click here for more details>>> Return & Exchange Policy
SKU: 13571367119

Discover Niche Categories That Outsell

Top-Converting Item to Boost Your Average Order

4.6 ★★★★★
Based on 24 reviews
Sort
Highest Rating
Newest First
Oldest First
Product Reviews
S
Verified Purchase
Skylar Hartnett
Whiting, US
★★★★★ 5
It works to divide a room, but it's not easy to use.
Color: Grey, Size: 6 Panel
This comes in multiple pieces and you have to build every single piece including the cloth that is between the two poles. There are plastic clips to hold the sections together, but they easily come off if you move the dividers the wrong way or try to reposition it. The only thing holding it up is rectangular shaped feet on the bottom and they are a pain when you hit it with your toes. It works if you need to divide a room, but its not pretty and there are far better options. It's cheaply made and has a habit of falling down if you are trying to use it in a straight or slightly angled line.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on December 26, 2022
A
Verified Purchase
Amazon Customer swengelp
Charlottesville, US
★★★★★ 4
Nice divider
Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel
Nice divider. Set up is a bear. I am a bit concerned with stability. Overall I like it.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on March 12, 2026
N
Verified Purchase
Nay from the Bay
Los Angeles, US
★★★★★ 5
Great privacy room divider
Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel, Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel
I got this room divider for our game room that shares the garage/laundry room, to separate the spaces. I was happy that it was relatively easy to put together in less than an hour with nothing more than a screwdriver (provided) although I used a small handheld drill. The instructions were pretty straightforward and easy to understand as everything was labeled. I have 2 small grandkids at home running around while I put this together so my timeline to completion might be longer than others. It recommends 2 people to assemble, but I was able to complete alone in about 40 minutes total and as I said I used a small handheld drill, (although it does come with a small Philips screwdriver) which is the only tool you need for assembly. The first two panels took me about 20 minutes but the other 4 were simple repeats after the initial 2. After all 6 panels were assembled the plastic clips to piece them together were literally a "SNAP" to put on. The poles are made of metal and the panels are made of a very sturdy almost canvas like fabric. When held up to the light not a lot shined through so very good for privacy. You can snap them together in sections and have 2 separate panels of 3 or what ever configuration you want. They are easy to move and bend around furniture or other obstacles, also fold flat together if you need to put them aside for storage. This worked out just as we had planned, very easy to move around when needed and I am very happy with this product. I loved how simple it was to put together, easy instructions, and the durability and functionality of it.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on December 29, 2024
R
Verified Purchase
robert ferrell
Phoenix, US
★★★★★ 5
Good
Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel
Love it , just what so needed , easy to put together (some what ) …
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on May 16, 2026
C
Verified Purchase
Crimm
Waukegan, US
★★★★★ 3
Decent for the price. Instructions suck but most people should be able to figure it out. More below.
Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel, Color: Black, Size: 6 Panel
SUMMARY: 3 stars from me because it's firmly average. It's fine for the price. Assembly and materials are alright but I can see some caveats depending on your circumstances. Assembly instructions do a subpar job of pointing out some details. ASSEMBLY INSTRUCTIONS: Maybe it's because I'm autistic and/or building model kits and assembling stuff is my jam, but I honestly thought people were exaggerating when they were complaining about the instructions and I'd be able to flex my ~superior assembly skills.~ I was wrong! These instructions genuinely suck, and whoever is responsible for making them should be ashamed. The instructions do a poor job of calling out some details regarding orientation of parts, and some of the images do not actually match the physical parts. For example, it does not really outline the assembly of the end panels clearly, and I can see someone accidentally using the wrong poles. I've drawn over a photo to show what you should do to try and make it clearer. Additionally, the manual shows a flathead screw for bolting the feet into position, but the actual screw is not a flathead. It also does not point out the counterbore, so if you aren't paying attention you may put the foot pads onto the wrong side of the foot. It's also missing the fact that you need to use another one of the plastic pieces when you finish assembling a panel. ACTUAL ASSEMBLY & MATERIALS: To their credit, all of my bags were clearly labeled. The assembly process wasn't difficult. It's mostly just tedious and requires a fair amount of space. I was able to assemble it by myself without any real difficulty. However, the way it's assembled means two things. One, the fabric parts aren't removable without disassembly. So if you want to use this in an environment where they would require cleaning, I would seriously recommend looking for another option. Or, you could buy this just to use the frame pieces and then somehow buy or make your own fabric pieces designed to be removable with velcro or something. Two, because of the materials I really don't have a lot of faith in this thing surviving disassembly and reassembly. Like a lot of sorta-cheap-but-convenient furniture, it uses those spring-button connections and plastic inserts with self-tapping screws. Those things are not really meant to be disassembled and rethreaded. It also relies a lot on the tension of the poles and the fabric to keep everything rigid and squared, which I think puts a lot of pressure on the aforementioned buttons, plastic inserts, and the hollow metal rods. So I feel like that will also cause issues with disassembly and reassembly. Basically once this thing is assembled, it's not really meant to be disassembled. The best you can do is spot-clean the fabric if you need to. Speaking of the fabric, I didn't see any labels on them or anything in the manual that says what they are, but they feel like some kind of polyester. They generate static electricity pretty easily, and pet hair and debris sticks easily. So that's another downside of them not being easily removable. For the most part it does seem pretty stable. The poles seem to be pretty uniform in length so they're all making contact with my floor. Obviously this isn't structural so it shouldn't be supporting anything, but the two main feet seem to be doing fine with keeping this thing upright. CLOSING THOUGHTS: Really, it's fine for what it is, but it could be better in a lot of little ways and the substandard quality of the instructions just seems unprofessional to me, which is why I'm being so harsh with my rating. Depending on your needs and environment you may want to consider a different option. Preferably one that is made to be disassembled with better materials, and/or one with fabric pieces made to be removed easily.
WAS THIS REVIEW HELPFUL?YesReportShare
Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2023

recommand products