SKU: 44923149033

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don'tUPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER

"One of the more momentous books of the decade."--The New York Times Book Review

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox" The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Binding Type: Paperback
Publisher: Penguin Books
Published: 02/03/2015
ISBN: 9780143125082
Pages: 576
Weight: 1.00lbs
Size: 8.30h x 5.40w x 1.10d

Review Citations: New York Times Book Review 03/01/2015 pg. 28
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SKU: 44923149033

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Bernadette Smith
Dallas, US
★★★★★ 5
Excellent Rivals to Lovers!!
Format: Kindle
The tension and banter between Huntyr and Wold was delectable. I absolutely love the fallen angel and all of his flaws. Huntyr is amazing too being a badass FMC with some major trauma. The world building was great and I enjoyed the training aspect of the story. The writing was immersive and was in the story the whole time. The ending had quite a twist that I hadn’t anticipated and made my jaw DROP. Excellent job! I also loved the narration. Laura is one of my fave narrators!
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Reviewed in the United States on August 15, 2025
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❈ Elizabeth ❈ | Breakawayreads
Omaha, US
★★★★★ 5
Fallen Angels, fae, vampires, oh my!
Format: Kindle
Rating: 4.5 | Spice: 2 (but a good slow-burn) • Main Characters: Huntyr and Wolf • I couldn’t wait to read this book; there was so much hype about it! And there was no doubt why. I fell in love with the characters and the plot itself. This book is mainly plot driven more than friction driven but it’s easy to follow along with. The characters are fun, easily understood. The main setting is at an academy where both the main characters are going through trials and building strength for the final test, The Transcendent. There are fantastic side characters as well. I loved the camaraderie between Huntyr and her friends. But we don’t like Lanson. 😆 We do have some plot twists that come into play throughout the book. Secrets and betrayal to be seen. I did adore Wolf and Huntyr’s relationship. It was a classic slow burn trope. They didn’t hit it off fast, but in time their feelings grew. I loved their banter, so sexy. Wolf is your next book boyfriend; Huntyr is your next vampire assassin independent bad-a*s female. Themes include loyalty, trust, self-discovery, a true slow burn romance. Side note: book ends on a angsty cliffhanger! • Emily, thank you for writing this awesome novel and I cannot wait to devour Book 2, Blood So Brutal! 😍 • Happy reading, my lovelies! xo
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Reviewed in the United States on January 21, 2024
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MelsABookworm
Bozeman, US
★★★★★ 4
“My heart bows to you and you only, Huntress.”
Format: Kindle
3.5 🌟 This book popped up in my KU recommended reading suggestions and the synopsis sounded like what I was in the mood for. I'm so glad I took a chance on it. I went into this knowing absolutely nothing about it and ended up really liking it. I love when this happens. The main characters are likeable and I easily found myself rooting for them. There is a mystery element to each of their backstories that I enjoyed watching unfold and can't wait to get more of. Wolf, in particular, has me fixated. Love him. I found this to be an entertaining, addictive read with a plot that moves along at a good pace. It reads so easily I found myself very reluctant to put it down. Lots of twists and turns and the angst is there. A good set up for the next book to come, for sure. My issues with this book....the dialogue feels a bit juvenile at times and there is a repetitive over use of a particular word phrasing that I found myself giving the ole eye-roll to. There are, without a doubt, some pretty cliche moments that gave me a bit of the cringe. I think this could've certainly 100% benefited from more depth regarding the world building. Perhaps the world building was sacrificed to keep the pacing quick? Just a guess. Also, the lack of consistency of character for the FMC was really evident and so she feels quite illogical at times. Overall, this was a fun and enjoyable read that hit the spot well enough for me. That ending certainly has me impatiently pining for book 2!
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Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2024
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Amazon Customer
Omaha, US
★★★★★ 3
Interesting take on the genre
Format: Kindle
True rating: 3.25 ⭐️ I enjoyed the fresh take on the genre. The best way I could describe the setting and world is an apocalyptic dystopian version of Farie where vampires, fae, and angles struggle to survive in what is left of the world. It was definitely interesting throwing the academy/hunger games aspect into this world as well. Even though I guessed the final reveal early on in the book, I kept hoping I was wrong, and it would take a surprising turn. While the "plot twists" were a bit predictable to me, I still enjoyed the ride this book took me on. Another downfall for me was the plot holes in the world building... I.E. if society has fallen and the world is in the aftermath of war, how are there trains running around the world? Just to take young adults to the trials to get into the golden city? How is the train maintained, the tracks clear, etc? However, I did enjoy the FMC & MMC and thought they were fleshed out nicely. I also enjoyed the side characters but wish some were developed more like Ashalin (sp?). I do find myself rooting for the MCs to succeed and find happiness together, which is obviously an important aspect for romantasy. Overall, was this an earth-shattering, mind-bending, terrific piece of literature? No. But was it the worst thing I've read this year? Also, no. This book has, to me, the bones of a great read & just needs a bit more to push it from an alright book to a great book. Overall ratings: Plot- 3.5⭐️ World building 3⭐️ Spice 2.5 🌶🌶 Main characters 4 ⭐️ Supporting characters 3.5⭐️
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Reviewed in the United States on May 12, 2024
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Irene zamora
Alexandria, US
★★★★★ 5
great book
Format: Kindle
I am really excited to meet the author at the book retreat this month. I really enjoyed this world that she built and most of the female main character Huntress is so awesome. She goes through a lot in this book and the ending; wow! I wouldn't have even guessed. I highly recommend everyone to read this book. I have been so lucky this year that almost all the books I have read have been, so far, 5 out 5 stars.
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Reviewed in the United States on June 2, 2026

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